A clean energy future for Australia

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Title: A clean energy future for Australia: A study by Energy Strategies for Clean Energy Future Group

Authors: Saddler, Hugh; Diesendorf, Mark; Denniss, Richard

This study explores the potential for deep cuts in emissions of the principal greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO2), in Australia. It focuses on stationary energy, that is energy that is used in the form of electricity, heat that is not produced from electricity, and mechanical energy. The study does not examine transport, which must be left for a separate study. The principal goal of the present study is to investigate whether it is possible to achieve a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions from stationary energy by 2040, by using a mix of existing technologies, with small improvements, in order to produce and use energy more efficiently and more cleanly. So, in our principal scenarios there are no dramatic breakthroughs in technologies: no cheap electricity from solar photovoltaic cells; no cheap capture and sequestration underground of CO2 emitted by coal-fired power stations; and no cheap methods of producing hydrogen as a means of storing and transporting renewable energy. In practice, however, there will be innovation between now and 2040. In Chapter 11 we offer a glimpse of how, with innovation, we might achieve 80% or more reductions in CO2 emissions beyond 2050 – but these are not the principal scenarios of this study. If we can reach our 2040 target with smallA Clean Energy Future for Austalia improvements to existing technologies, then reductions beyond 2050 will be even easier with innovation. Our method is to take existing technologies and develop a workable and credible stationary energy supply system for 2040 that meets our target and then to identify the key strategies that will allow us to get from the present to that 2040 state. In moving from the present to the future we take account of the main driving forces for increasing energy consumption: economic growth and population growth. Our study is inspired by several earlier energy and greenhouse scenario studies performed overseas (RCEP, 2000; Interlaboratory Work Group, 1997, 2000; Marsh et al., 2003) and a pilot study published by the Australia Institute (Turton et al., 2002). These and other scenario studies are reviewed briefly in Chapter 13. However, the present study is different from earlier studies because of its focus on existing technologies and because it presents new scenarios on future energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Australia.

Publication Date: 03/2004

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