Analysis of finished petroleum product demand supply gap Australia 2008

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Contents 1 Summary 2 Workings 3 Analysis 4 References

[edit] Summary

The following analysis quantifies the demand supply gap for finished petroleum products for the petroleum industry in Australia in 2008 at 14.2 GL.

[edit] Workings

Table 1: Total refinery sales - Australia 2007-08

	Vol. (GL)	Energy (PJ)	AUD bn	AUD / L	AUD / GJ
Total refinery sales:	39.575	1400.76	28.611	0.723	20.425
Automotive gasoline	17.079	584.10	13.144	0.770	22.503
Total diesel ≡ ADO +IDF	12.180	470.15	10.036	0.824	21.346
Total other fuels:	7.897
LPG	1.515	40.15	0.684	0.452	17.050
Aviation fuel ≡ turbine fuel + gasoline	5.301	195.08	4.322	0.815	22.154
Heating oil	0.102	3.80	0.052	0.511	13.710
Fuel oil	0.979	38.87	0.501	0.511	12.881
kerosene	0.001	0.04	0.001	0.620	16.938
Total other products:	2.417
Lubricants and greases	0.121	4.695	0.146	1.205	31.045
bitumen	1.452	63.888
Other products (incl. byproducts of petrochemical downstream processing)	0.844

Notes:

1. Data from ABARE^[1]

Table 2: Total refined imports - Australia 2007-08

	Vol. (GL)	Energy (PJ)	AUD bn	AUD / L	AUD / GJ
Total refined imports:	17.982	658.7	13.454	0.748	20.425
Automotive gasoline	3.533	120.83	2.719	0.770	22.503
Total diesel ≡ ADO +IDF	7.470	288.34	6.155	0.824	21.346
LPG	0.965	25.57	0.436	0.452	17.050
Aviation fuel ≡ turbine fuel + gasoline	1.846	67.93	1.505	0.815	22.154
Fuel oil	1.625	64.51	0.831	0.511	12.881
Other products (ex. Lubricants)	2.147	76.15	1.331	0.620	17.479
Lubricants and greases	0.396	15.36	0.477	1.205	31.045

Notes:

1. Data from ABARE^[2]

Table 3: Total domestic consumption of refined product - Australia 2007-08

	Vol. (GL)	Energy (PJ)
Total refined product	50.788	1622.20
Automotive gasoline	19.234	657.80
Total diesel	18.256	704.68
Total other fuels:	11.820
LPG	4.024	106.64
Aviation fuels	6.158	36.80
Heating oil	0.012	0.45
Fuel oil	1.583	62.85
Kerosene	0.043	1.57
Total other products:	1.478
lubricants and greases	0.435	16.88
Bitumen	0.785	34.54
other products	0.258

Notes:

1. Data from ABARE ^[3]

Table 4: Total exports of refined products - Australia 2007-08

	Vol. (GL)	Energy (PJ)	AUD bn	AUD / L	AUD / GJ
Refined product exports:	3.974	146.9	2.780	0.700	36.965
Automotive gasoline	0.628	21.48	0.444	0.707	34.200
Total diesel ≡ ADO +IDF	0.462	17.83	0.363	0.786	38.600
Aviation fuel ≡ turbine fuel + gasoline	2.138	36.80	1.518	0.710	17.212
Fuel oil	0.508	20.17	0.237	0.467	39.700
Other products (ex. Lubricants)	0.060		0.066	1.100
Lubricants and greases	0.178	6.91	0.152	0.854

Notes:

1. Data from ABARE^[4]

	Units	2006-07	2007-08	2008-09
Fraction of refinery sales volumes as LPG		0.037	0.039
Fraction of refinery sales volumes as aviation fuels		0.130	0.137
Fraction of refinery sales volumes as fuel oil		0.020	0.025
Refining utilization rate	%		88%	79%
Total marketable petroleum products:	GL		50.788
Automotive gasoline	GL		19.234
Total diesel	GL		18.256
Total other fuels:	GL		11.820
LPG	GL		4.024
aviation fuels	GL		6.158
heating oil	GL		0.012
fuel oil	GL		1.583
kerosene	GL		0.043
Total other products:	GL		1.478
lubricants and greases	GL		0.435
bitumen	GL		0.785
other products	GL		0.258
Total refinery sales volumes:	GL		39.574	34.6
Automotive gasoline	GL		17.079	15.0
Total diesel	GL		12.180	11.6
Total other fuels	GL		7.8970	6.2
LPG	GL		1.515
Aviation fuel ≡ turbine fuel + gasoline	GL		5.301
Heating oil	GL		0.102
Fuel oil	GL		0.979
Total other products	GL		2.418	1.8
Lubricants and greases	GL		0.121
bitumen	GL		1.452
including biporoducts of petrochemical downstream processing (cf., Note a of Table 30 p. 62)	GL		0.845	38.729
Refinery sales volumes - other fuels:	GL			12.059
Refined petroleum products demand - supply gap:	GL		11.801
automotive gasoline	GL		2.155
total diesel	GL		6.076
total other fuels:	GL		3.923
LPG	GL		2.509
aviation fuels	GL		0.857
fuel oil	GL		0.604
heating oil	GL		-0.090
keroscene	GL		0.043
Total other products:	GL		-0.353
lubricants and greases	GL		0.314
biumen	Gl		-0.667
Estimated production rate to meet gaps (BPSD):	BPSD		236,496
Automotive gasoline	BPSD		41,933
Total diesel	BPSD		118,229
Total other fuels	BPSD		76,335
Estimated production rate to meet gaps:		ML per day	BPSD
Automotive gasoline		9.45	59,036
Total diesel		19.79	123,677
Total other fuels		14.91	93,203
Estimated production rate to meet gaps:		ML per day	BPSD
Automotive gasoline		6.71	41,933
Total diesel		18.92	118,229
Total other fuels		12.21	77,249

[edit] Analysis

Total consumption of marketable petroleum products amounted to 50.788 Gigalitres (GL).

These notes are appended to ABARE’s Table L_09 of data^[5]:

• The LPG total includes LPG used as petrochemical feedstock.
• ‘Other products’ comprises crude oil used as fuel, naphtha, refinery fuel sold, solvents, petroleum coke and specialty feedstocks.
• Refinery fuel consumption and losses are excluded
• Some petroleum product is produced from the conversion of other petroleum products. This element of double counting has been netted off total marketable products.

Total refinery sales volume amounted to 38.73 GL ^[6]

The demand – supply gap based on consumption and demand totals amounts to approximately 12.1 GL

Estimates of the demand - supply gaps for automotive gasoline, total diesel (ADO + IDF), other fuels and products may also be obtained by differencing data presented in ABARE’s Table L_09 ^[5]and ABARE's Table 30 in the Energy in Australia 2009 report^[7].

The gaps, expressed as annual volumes, are converted into refinery throughputs, expressed as barrels per stream day (BPSD), using the average annual refinery utilization rate cited by the ACCC^[6].

[edit] References

1. ↑ ABARE Mineral Statistics, Sheet 17a
2. ↑ ABARE Mineral Statistics, Sheet 17c
3. ↑ [1]ABARE Australian Energy Statistics, Table K
4. ↑ ABARE Mineral Statistics, Sheet 17b
5. ↑ ^{5.0 5.1} ABARE Energy update 2009Table L
6. ↑ ^{6.0 6.1} Monitoring of the Australian petroleum industry Chart 13.2
7. ↑ Energy in Australia 2009pg 62