On the response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to greenhouse climate change

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Greve, R., 2000, "On the response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to greenhouse climate change" Climatic Change, 46:289-303 http://www.geo.utexas.edu/courses/387H/PAPERS/Greve%202000.pdf

Abstract. Numerical computations are performed with the three-dimensional polythermal ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS in order to investigate the possible impact of a greenhouse-gas-induced climate change on the Greenland ice sheet. The assumed increase of the mean annual air temperature above the ice covers a range from T = 1C to 12C, and several parameterizations for the snowfall and the surface melting are considered. The simulated shrinking of the ice sheet is a smooth function of the temperature rise, indications for the existence of critical thresholds of the climate input are not found. Within 1000 model years, the ice-volume decrease is limited to 10% of the present volume for T 3C, whereas the most extreme scenario, T = 12C, leads to an almost entire disintegration, which corresponds to a sea-level equivalent of 7 m. The different snowfall and melting parameterizations yield an uncertainty range of up to 20% of the present ice volume after 1000 model years.