From MoxyWiki

Purpose of the workspaces

The workspace is an ad hoc Community of Practice (COP), which is intended to support collaboration between those wanting to help define how the Eastern Ontario region can transition to a low carbon economy.

The natural resources available to the region can be used in a number of different combinations, to produce a large number of different product portfolios, to serve a large number of different customers, in a number of different local, regional and export markets. The very large number of possible outcomes of an effort to move to a low carbon regional economy is said to result from a combinatorial explosion of states.

A number of strategic options will exist for achieving the overarching strategic intent to effect disruptive change to the situation which exists currently. These are usefully diagrammed using the decision tree construct.

Generally, there will be proponents of particular strategic options for achieving the change. Each proponent will likely have in mind a number of scenarios which might be followed in implementing the option.

An ad hoc steering group, drawn from the proponents, proposes some terms of reference for setting up the analysis of the complex Decision Situation in a project brief.

The project brief provides the basis for defining the scope of an analysis of the decision situation. The scope states the decision problem.

The first step in the analysis is to identify some limited number of approximate solutions to the decision problem, which warrant further evaluation. This informational action is taken through the application of a structured methodology for estimating the affordability and effectiveness of scenarios.

Using a systematic Decision and Risk Analysis (D&RA) approach to the conduct of this Preliminary Feasibility Analysis serves to reduce the chances of poor outcomes from decisions; the chances of achieving positive results are increased.

It is the scope statement which is taken to some sub-set of decision-makers in the three domains of government, business and Civil Society, for the purpose of seeking the resources to conduct a requisite analysis.

The analysis of complex decision situations demands the organisation of large amounts of data and information from disparate sources in a Knowledge Management System (KMS).

Conducting the analysis in the workspace means that data and information generated at the preliminary feasibility assessment stage can be reused in subsequent conduct of more detailed D&RA.

Project Brief

The current situation analysis (CSA) is outlined, and the overarching strategic intent in undertaking to change the current situation over some outlook period is stated. The difference between the desired end state and the current state is often presented in the form of a gap analysis.

The sought after change will generally involve the disruption of existing supply chains linking the natural resources available to a region to local, regional and external markets for goods and services created from the resources.

An actionable strategic intent is derived from 'first cut' quantitative analysis of the data and information pertaining to the key facets of the decision context - the key drivers of, and impediments to, effecting the proposed disruptive change.

In particular, these high-level terms of reference of the actionable strategic intent are defined:

1. the strategic scale at which it is to be carried out;
2. the timeline over which it is to take place;
3. the extent to which the analysis will focus on the strategic integration of the disruptive change into existing and new structures;
4. the strategic risk categories which will be analysed in the assessment of scenarios, and the order in which they will be analysed.

This informational action is undertaken by applying the first step of the structured methodology of the preliminary feasibility analysis which is being proposed to the region as a whole.

The Scope of the Analysis of the decision situation

A statement of the decision problem references:

1. the project brief;
2. the scenarios to be analysed;
3. the quantitative indicators that the overarching strategic intent has been realised;
4. the risk variables which are to be included within the analytical boundary of the preliminary feasibility analysis of the decision situation;
5. the criteria against which the affordability and effectiveness of scenarios for achieving the strategic intent will be assessed;
6. the constraints imposed by the decision context on the manipulation of risk variables.

A Structured Methodology

The methodology proceeds iteratively through a decision analysis cycle until a requisite analysis is achieved. Changes are controlled by an iteration controller.

Since the procedure is iterative, the choice of strategic option and underlying tactical alternatives as the starting point of the analysis is not limiting.

Since the iterative procedure is conducted within a collaborative workspace, the analysis can be interrogated by decision-makers; the scope and key strategic inputs can be reset. The data and information generated at each stage is not lost.

In outline, the structured approach to estimating the affordability and effectiveness of each of the scenarios follows these steps:

1. The complexity of the configuration of each scenario is decomposed to some simplified representation.
2. The variables on which the estimation of the affordability and effectiveness of the scenario is based are assigned starting values.
3. The constraints imposed on the values which the variables may take are identified.
4. Decision Modelling of the starting configuration is carried out deterministically.

Notes on using the collaborative workspace:

• The workspace is structured in a way that, hopefully, it will not degenerate into becoming some kind of amorphous blog.
• This ‘Main Page’ of the project describes the over-arching strategic intent of the transition of Ontario East to a low carbon economy. It also provides links to pages on which key sub-topics are presented for information and discussion.
• The page can be edited as a whole, or in sections.
• A ‘discussion’ page, sitting behind the Main Page, provides the workspace in which points of view and pertinent data and information are exchanged regarding the over-arching strategic intent.

• The broad and complex topic of Eastern Ontario’s transition to a low carbon economy is treated on a large network of pages within the Moxy MediaWiki.

• Key public domain data and information on subjects related to the various sub-topics are posted in the public space within the Moxy website.